my main concern is Google, being the distributor of open-source android versions, making some core change to the OS that can’t be undone for /e/OS. Or worse, Google taking away open-source android, with newer versions being closed-source only. I imagine there would be plenty of forks of whatever the last open-source android version would be in that event
Well, I’ve got a bit of good news for you…depending on how much you trust ChatGPT’s assessment of the matter, because I had a somewhat-similar concern that I put past the system, and its response was rather promising, best summarized as “enough interdependent market forces makes it unlikely that Google is going to stop working on AOSP and move to a proprietary OS”.
AOSP isn’t just the foundation of LineageOS - in the grand Android ecosystem, Lineage and its derivatives are both useful, and rounding errors. Suppose Google were to decide tomorrow that AOSP is old hat, and the freshly minted PixelOS is what all the cool kids are running. Well, now Google has quite the tightrope to walk. Google is going to have to convince Samsung not to just fork the last AOSP release and continue using Android as their base with in-house developers continuing to work on it. Samsung already has their own App Store; telling devs “port your app, first 20,000 transactions will only pay 10% to the house, no need to re-tool”…now, Google has a respectable market share with Pixel, but Google market share gets cut in half overnight. Google already lost Huawei, who proved that it’s possible to run an Android fork and still work. Google doesn’t need that from Samsung.
This is particularly problematic because the real moneymaker for Google is the ecosystem - Drive, Gmail, Docs, Maps, Wallet…Samsung has drop-in replacements for half of these (App Store, WearOS, , and can either integrate (Gmail via IMAP), partner (“Samsung Maps Powered By HereWeGo”), or buy someone if need be…and if enough people move from the Google ecosystem to the Samsung ecosystem, Google’s ad business suddenly loses tens of millions of eyeballs in one phone generation.
Samsung isn’t the only company that would be leaving the Google ecosystem in short order. Polestar vehicle computers basically run Android. Millions of TVs run Google TV, and Android fork. A whole bunch of random things from barcode scanners to medical imaging appliances run Android under the hood. Google would make an enemy out of lots of companies - big ones, with lawyers on retainer - if they were to move off AOSP. The EU and the US alike would likely litigate.
This brings us to why Lineage and /e/OS and the other AOSP forks are useful noise - it’s basically the same reason Google funds Firefox - an alternative, even if it’s uncomfortable or hobbled in some way, is a helpful thing that Google can point to if someone tries calling ‘monopoly’. Google simply tells developers “this is a rooted phone that fails safetynet”, and it’s up to the developers to decide what to do with that information - Google itself doesn’t enforce it. The presence of the forks makes it easier for Google to argue “users have a choice” and “we provide developers with security mechanisms they can opt to ignore”.
So…perhaps /e/OS will have to ride out a particular Android release until the ecosystem catches up, but it’s more likely that Google will choose to allow app developers to tighten the screws and do a better job at detecting spoofing, than they are to throw the whole AOSP ecosystem into chaos and losing millions of ad targets because a tiny minority use forks.